SCIAFs verdict on Cancun climate negotiations

It's important to bear in mind that much work needs to be done between now and South Africa to build on the foundations laid here in Cancun.

In particular, more work needs to be done on clarifying ambitious and binding emission reduction targets for industrialised countries, as well as on ensuring clear pledges of finance, accessible to real people on the ground, are on the table to help developing countries adapt and survive.

Listen to the BBC report on the impact climate change is having in developing countries featuring SCIAF partners and Campaigns Officer Lexi Barnett (Courtesy of BBC Radio Scotland’s Good Morning Scotland programme).

There was much to-ing and fro-ing on the final day of the conference with new texts on the two main tracks being presented to delegates in the afternoon - on both Kyoto Protocol and Long-term co-operative action.

On the positive side, the final agreement brings together a near global consensus on the urgent need to curb greenhouse gas emissions in line with science to keep temperature increases below 2oC. It also recognised wealthy industrialised countries’ ‘historical’ responsibility for creating the climate change problem and establishes mechanisms for transferring funds from rich to poor countries to spend on climate protection. It also set out parameters for reducing emissions from deforestation and for transferring clean technology to developing countries.

The Mexican hosts should stand up and take a bow for the inclusive way they have managed these negotiations.

President of the talks, Patricia Espinosa, asked negotiators to take the texts and look at them with a desire for progress and a willingness to compromise. She has been widely praised for keeping the talks on track, transparent and fair. She even received a standing ovation from the delegates in the room for her plea for openness and progress, and a second standing ovation later in the evening when addressing the open plenary where nations were due to feed back their views on the texts. Each nation that spoke began with a warm tribute to the Mexican hosts for their work on keeping things moving in a positive way.

We are still miles from where we need to be, but a transparent and positive process including an obvious willingness from most nations to achieve something meaningful here, has avoided a repeat of last year’s Copenhagen's shambles.

At least now we are on a steady course for achieving the global deal so desperately needed by the end of 2011.

Yesterday the Scottish Government held a press conference together with the Maldives to announce a new initiative, working together on renewable energies.

Afterwards I spoke to the Maldivian Environment Minister, Mohamed Aslam and asked him how he felt the negotiations in Cancun were progressing, given his country’s extreme vulnerability to rising sea levels (the Maldives are a low-lying island nation that could disappear altogether in just a matter of years!).

He told me that he thought that there was still a possibility for good progress form the talks, and that he was impressed with the Scottish commitment to reduce our greenhouse gas emissions by 42% by 2020. He commended it as an act of leadership that is sorely lacking in these negotiations.

In other news, we heard today that the UK Secretary of State for Climate change, Chris Huhne, would not be called back to the UK after all! So we’re following developments on that at the moment, and will push for a meeting. We want to make sure he knows what he needs to do…

Elsewhere, we heard that Spain has come out to join a growing number of countries that want the EU to increase its ambition by going to 30% cuts to emissions by 2020. This is good news, as these negotiations need more nations to speak out about their positions, as we’ve seen a lot of country delegations saying things behind the scenes, but getting a wee bit shy when it comes to speaking out loud for other nations to hear!

I also attended a learning exchange meeting today where Latin American and African partners of SCIAF and our Irish sister agency, Trocaire, met together to share their expertise on methods for helping poor communities in poorer countries to adapt to climate change.

It was fascinating to hear how much expertise and knowledge was shared, with the Pan-African Climate Justice Alliance advising the Central American Movement for People Affected by Climate Change on how they built their movement, and hearing how community radio stations in El Salvador could be used in rural Kenya.

I know I’ve said it before, but leaving that meeting today really emphasised that these voices from the global south are the voices of the real climate change experts, and we need to make every effort to ensure they’re heard at these negotiations.

While certainly these talks are making significant and positive progress, more still needs to be done to iron out the disappointing elements and ensure that a deal is done that will truly represent climate justice for the world’s poor.

Another full day at the climate talks, and a major change in plan for UK involvement in the negotiations.

We’ve just heard that the Secretary of State for Climate Change, Chris Huhne, is being recalled to the UK for a parliamentary vote on tuition fees. He will be handing over his role as lead political decision-maker for the UK, and co-chair of the group working on the Kyoto Protocol, to the Minister for Climate Change, Greg Barker.

So the main event for today was a meeting with Mr Barker to let him know what needs to be done. Together with a group of other aid and development agencies from the UK, we outlined the three key issues we believe are jeopardising a strong deal that works for people living in poverty:

· Stronger leadership,

· Pledges on how much countries will reduce their emissions, and

· Additional funding.

Firstly, we were keen to stress that although the constructive atmosphere in Cancun was a great sign (so different from Copenhagen) there is a fear that in the corridors of power it is not translating into decisive actions. The summit’s mantra seems to be “Nothing’s agreed ‘til everything’s agreed”!

Signals are being picked up that the details and crunch issues will be left to the final night, and small groups will decide the outcomes behind closed doors - exactly what happened at Copenhagen.

We also warned Mr Baker that in order to maintain progress and goodwill, developed countries needed to acknowledge that the developing country parties have been willing to make big concessions in the spirit of compromise and moving forward.

In order to move towards a strong deal, developed countries really need to show some realism in setting their reductions to greenhouse gas emissions, and date that they will achieve them. The most recent report from the UN states that if we continue on our current action plan, we will still be massively over the emission levels acceptable to keep global warming under 2oC. Scientists believe that warming above 2oC will cause a catastrophic “runaway” effect” and that we will have lost our chance to control dangerous climate change. The UN states that we are currently ‘off target’ by the equivalent of the entire EU’s emissions, or China and Russia’s combined!

We cannot continue on this path if we expect the agreement to achieve anything meaningful. The UK can play its part in this by increasing its own emission reductions targets to over 40% by 2020, and pushing the EU to increase its target.

There is also an urgent need for new and additional funding to help people in developing countries adapt to the impacts of climate change. A new global fund needs to be established at Cancun that will be ready to go by the time of next year’s negotiations in South Africa. It should be designed by development experts as well as finance people, and ensure that real people living in poverty can access to the urgent assistance they need.

We hope Greg Barker, now thrust into the limelight at the negotiations, is clear on what he needs to do…. and that we’re watching…!

The second and final week of the negotiations is underway, with ministers arriving to – hopefully - make the big political decisions prepared last week by their negotiating teams.

Today saw the EU clarify their position, as well as an announcement that UK Secretary of State for climate change, Chris Huhne, will be co-chairing this week’s discussions on the future of the Kyoto Protocol.

Firstly, the EU has stated that it will continue to push for 'a balanced package', and re-emphasised the importance of increasing the level of greenhouse gas reductions targets. While the confusion over reductions pledges continues, we need to hear stronger positions from countries in support of 'anchoring' these reduction targets in the UN process. Whilst we welcome this statement from the EU, as we know that stronger emissions reductions targets are essential, we need to hear from more countries in support of this.

At the moment, the atmosphere at the talks is one of reluctance - nobody seems to want to stick their neck out and strongly state what they really want. Nations definitely have a fear of being blamed for any stalling or slowing down of the negotiations, so any statements they are making are being made quietly.

The fear for us then is that this will continue until the end of the week and nations will creep towards an outcome at Cancun that is not ambitious enough, and that will lock in slow progress until at least next year’s summit. So, more strong statements from the UK and EU on increasing ambition on reductions targets, and reminders of the need for countries to be prepared to compromise and accept a balanced outcome please!

Meanwhile, we met with members of the delegation from Tuvalu to explain Scotland’s world-leading climate change legislation, and to extend a hand of solidarity and support in the shape of a bottle of Scottish 42% whisky. Stop Climate Chaos Scotland teamed up with a distillery to create The Year 2020 whisky, which celebrates Scotland’s emissions target of a 42% reduction in greenhouse gases by 2020. This is in line with what science, and justice, says is necessary. Tuvalu, a low-lying island in the Pacific, faces the very real prospect of disappearing under rising sea levels in the coming decades. When facing the reality that entire nations could be made uninhabitable in a matter of years, the urgency of progress at these talks becomes frighteningly real.

I've arrived in Cancun, Mexico for the UN climate negotiations. After the disappointment of Copenhagen last year (see my earlier blog posts...), it's down to the negotiators here this week to forge some real progress on the road to a fair, ambitious, and legally binding global climate deal.

I’m part of the delegation from CIDSE/Caritas, two huge and influential international networks of aid agencies of which SCIAF is a part. Speaking to the rest of the team, it seems that, so far, the mood has been quite positive, with negotiators learning from last year that full-on confrontation will get us nowhere. Although the nations are keen not to completely shout each other down, that doesn't mean that they are happily compromising and making progress...

SCIAF is concerned with the impacts that climate change is already having on people living in poverty around the world. We therefore want the negotiations to cover these key areas:

1. ensure that the richest industrialised nations are held to legally binding greenhouse gas emission reductions targets;

2. ensure that the industrialised countries provide additional funding to help people affected by climate change in developing countries adapt to and survive the impacts;

3. ensure that there is progress here in Cancun which can take us towards agreeing a fair global deal.

Last week, however, progress on securing the process for reducing greenhouse gas emissions took a bit of a setback as Japan announced it would not support a second commitment period under the Kyoto Protocol. This Protocol is the text that includes the agreement that the richest industrialised countries, such as the UK and EU, begin to cut their emissions first as they have the historical responsibility for climate change.

The protocol is due to run out, so it’s important that an agreement is made here in Cancun to not only keep the Kyoto Protocol, but also to make it stronger so that the reductions which countries make are in line with the scientific recommendations of what needs to be done.

While Japan's announcement has come as a blow, all is not lost. Countries that we might have expected to side with Japan have not made any noises to that effect. Meanwhile, the EU and other countries have quietly expressed their support for the protocol, and developing countries are still insisting that it is kept and strengthened. I'll continue to follow what comes out of the negotiations on this vital issue over the coming final week of the talks and keep you updated.

Tomorrow is another long day of negotiations. I'll be back then with more insider info...